Current expectations for next year? in Hawkeye Hardwood Forum

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Chicago Hawk	Current expectations for next year?		Lead	[-]
Posts: 6910 Mar 20 12 8:53 AM Misery deserves company.	Tags : None Remove this ad I've just perused a thread elsewhere, and I'm surprised at the number of people picking us at 6th in the B10 next year. Moreover, those that do pick us lower than Wisconsin, a team that we swept this year and is losing it's starting backcourt. That just seems insane to me. Depending on how the offseason shakes out, I can envision 1-3 teams that by rights should be definitely slotted in front of us. However, even the worst-case scenario should have us challenging for 4th and, given a better-case scenario, even better. Right now I envision us finishing between 3rd and 5th, but certainly not lower. A lot can happen between then and now, I realize. Just talking about RIGHT NOW. Whacha think?
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THEOHAWK	I see us as 6th-8th	#1	[url]	[-]
Posts: 284 Mar 20 12 9:09 AM	We're a year away from competing for a top 4 spot, but I see us as having a good pre-season and going .500 in league play and getting to the cusp of the (if not in) NCAA tourney. Haven't seen Woodbury play yet, but those I heard from who saw him live in the state tournament said the same thing to me: He's a project who won't be ready for a couple of years. Weak and not aggressive were the two words most used. Most of the time those big guys don't start to blossom until their Sophomore year. Haven't seen Gessel play at the next level. Same goes for all the new guys. Hopefully a couple of them can step right in and contribute. We have a couple of proven's in Marble and White, just so they don't regress. McCabe can fill a role and provide an offensive threat, along with hustle play. Basabe is a wild card, a lot rides on how he plays. Oglesby? Hopefully he can step into a scoring role. Olasani? I think he'll make a leap and a bound next year and fill a lot of the role we are thinking Woodbury is going to fill but won't be ready for. Last Edited By: THEOHAWK Mar 20 12 9:17 AM. Edited 2 times.
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NLHawkeye	Ty Zeller from IU agrees with your assessment of AW	#2	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6369 Mar 20 12 11:59 AM Pogue Mahone	Look, when you're in HS and 5 kids continually dump down on you when you get the ball because the rest of your team sucks, its easy to make that statement. At this point I'll go with the scouts, camp directors, and the Roys and Bills and Frans of the world who say Woodbury is the real deal and will contribute immediately. He will be the post presence we have lacked since....???? Of more concern next year, at least to me, is the lack of an outside scoring threat ala Gatens. Right now there is no one that poses a consistent threat like MG did. That could change with White, Ogs, McC, and any number of the frosh, but to me that is a real concern. We'll be young next year and I would guess we will struggle, particularly since once again the B1G will be loaded. I'd say the safe bet would be the 6 to 9 place finish, with a bonus of top 5. As far as Wisky goes, they lose Taylor but they are getting some stud recruits and quite frankly, when does Ryan ever NOT field a competitive team?
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Mattfromchicago	haven't seen woodbury play, but.......	#3	[url]	[-]
Posts: 708 Mar 20 12 2:04 PM	.......in looking at this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzfwTyuOp1k ......two things worry me (and 'worry' is a relative term). first is a lack of hops. he really doesn't seem to play above the rim at all, and didn't seem to have much explosion to the rim. second is his strength. he's certainly got the frame to fill out, but right now he's skinny for his height and will get beat up in the b10 unless he fills out. the guy in the b10 that seems to be closest to his body type would be leonard, and it doesn't appear that woodbury's as athletic as leonard is, at least from these vids. on the plus side, seems as though he handles the ball well and has good hands. good feel for creating a shot around the basket. seems to run the court well. certainly is no plodder, which fits into fran's style of play. big guys always seem to be 'projects' at this age. he's gonna have to get stronger, though, to be a physical presence in the middle; just 'being tall' won't be enough in the b10. can he contribute right away? yeah, i think the plusses are there. will he be that center we're looking for immediately? i think he's got a ways to go. chi, i love your optimism, and it's really good to be talking about good things in the program instead of transfers, but i'm with nl here......i think we're a year's experience away from that top tier. i'm really jazzed about white. with another year of workouts and experience under his belt i think he's going to be something special for us. if we can crack the top 6 that should get us into the ncaa's, and that would be great progress for the program. edit: i think woodbury's contribution level next year will be in direct proportion to how well the freshmen pg's play. if they can force help off the dribble that'll open up the middle for him. if they can't, i don't see him being a dump-down option until he gets his strength up. i guess white's outside shooting could be another major factor there, too. Last Edited By: Mattfromchicago Mar 20 12 2:27 PM. Edited 1 time.
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Cattlefeeder	I'll again bring up the fact Hlas noted a month or two ago.	#4	[url]	[-]
Posts: 774 Mar 20 12 2:18 PM	when does Ryan ever NOT field a competitive team? Wisconsin has never finished worse than 4th with Bo Ryan as head coach. That is insane. My goals for Iowa for next year: - 5th place in the Big Ten - 10-8 conference record - NCAA tournament bid The trouble with expecting better than 5th is finding schools for Iowa to jump ahead of. Between Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin, you've already got five big ones. Then you still have to account for Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois. Iowa might be on the rise, but just getting out of the second division in the Big Ten is quite a haul. EDIT: If you want to talk about rising expectations, think about a year of seasoning and this starting lineup in 2013: SO Gesell SR Marble JR White SR McCabe SO Woodbury Bench: SO Clemmons/Ingram JR Oglesby SO Meyer SR Basabe Now that's a team that can contend for a title. Last Edited By: Cattlefeeder Mar 20 12 2:24 PM. Edited 2 times.
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farfelabc	If we finish sixth...	#5	[url]	[-]
Posts: 525 Mar 20 12 2:21 PM	I'd be pleased. That'd put us in front of teams I expect us to be better than: Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern and gasp, Purdue. Next year's an incremental step...the year after, infinity and beyond. Then you don't want to walk and talk about Jesus. You just want to see his face. Jagger & Richards
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MNHawkeye		#6	[url]	[-]
Posts: 55 Mar 20 12 8:02 PM	Definitely think Cattlefeeder is spot on. Better than sixth seems like a mountain to climb, not that t couldn't happen. Will we have enough outside shooters is a serious question. I'm glad White, McCabe, and, even apparently, Marble, can hit a three, but Gatens spread the floor. Oglesby and Gessel will have to stretch defenses to help our athletic and nonathletic bigs become successful. Can they consistently do that? Wisconsin usually can...
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DanL	I think Cattlefeeder is dead on...	#7	[url]	[-]
Posts: 894 Mar 20 12 8:13 PM	...We will be competitive next season, but unless we mature faster than I think we've a right to expect...fifth would be outstanding, sixth...a good shot at it. Two years from now looks to be the breakout year for Iowa.
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Eyehawk	On a limb here...	#8	[url]	[-]
Posts: 11385 Mar 20 12 9:08 PM On Iowa!	Our improvement over last year with freshmen and sophs was great. Next year I think we will have an improved defense (they will concentrate more on it because the offense is becoming in sync), and with that a step up to 4th or fifth. I could see us edging out Michigan and/or Wisconsin. It could happen.
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THEOHAWK	I'm not saying Woodbury isn't the real deal - he most certainly is	#9	[url]	[-]
Posts: 284 Mar 21 12 7:38 AM	He has a great jump-hook with both hands. He runs the court very well. Great passer. Can handle the ball. Can block shots. I just don't see him contributing as much as some are hoping for NEXT YEAR. I don't think he's strong enough or plays like a 7 footer yet to make a big impact in the big 10. I expect him to start meeting the high expectations sometime his Sophomore year and beyond. Last Edited By: THEOHAWK Mar 21 12 7:49 AM. Edited 1 time.
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coehawk	I think 6th would be a reasonable expectation	#10	[url]	[-]
Posts: 1061 Mar 21 12 8:48 AM	Remove this ad 10-8 in the conference. Clear up some of the non-conference hiccups and we'll easily see 20+ wins and a tourny bid. Expectations: Improvements from the top returning players. Marble and White have shown they can take over games offensively, and Oglesby when hot is very dangerous. I expect Basabe to be more like last year or the two NIT games -- active and aggressive. I expect McCabe to be solid and do better to get defensive position and avoid the cheap fouls. I'll be interested to see what May does once/if he's 100% healthy again. No defections or off-court issues. Hopes/Wishes: At least a couple of the newcomers contribute immediately. Gesell seems most likely to contribute right away (IMO) but I don't care who it is. If Clemmons comes in and is clearly better than Gesell and ready to handle the point, fine. While Woodbury may not be the be all and end all I think he can come in immediately and provide some semblance of a post presence. Throw in the natural progression from his freshman to soph season, I hope Olaseni can give a good 10-15 minutes. Meyer is an interesting character as he seems to be a little like White; maybe a little bigger and maybe not quite as athletic. But if he can give a few minutes at the 4 or 5 spots along with Woodbury and Olaseni, we should be OK. There is a lot of versatility among the players. You can go small or big depending on match-ups. It'll certainly be fun to watch. PG: Gesell - Clemmons - Marble SG: Marble - Oglesby - Gesell - Ingram SF: White - May - Marble - McCabe PF: Basabe - McCabe - White - Meyer C: Woodbury - Olaseni - Meyer - Basabe - McCabe Those who died are justified for wearing the badge They're the chosen whites
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HoustonHawkeye	Some improvement but....	#11	[url]	[-]
Posts: 637 Mar 21 12 9:10 PM	We should be better overall. BUT, that may not be reflected in the overall record, especially if the B1G stays so tough. 18-19 wins = expected 23 wins = high-water mark 15 wins = low mark If they simply toe the line again in conference and end up around .500, they simply need to NOT blow so many non-conference games early on and waa-laa = 22 wins. HOWEVER, with at least 2 probable freshmen starters, that may not happen and it may take awhile for them to get completely comfortable.
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H I McDonnough	My guess	#12	[url]	[-]
Posts: 808 Mar 22 12 10:08 AM	I would guess we will have a similar Big 10 record, somewhere around .500. I would hope that the non-conference performance would be a hell of a lot better. The non-conference was just terrible in 2011-2012. Like others have said, I have felt for a while that 2 years from now will be the big step. Next year we will be relying a ton on freshmen in prominent roles. Maybe a bubble team next year.
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tidrow	i know that idle speculation is sort of the point of Internet message boards	#13	[url]	[-]
Posts: 503 Mar 22 12 8:28 PM	but it just seems impossible to me to make any sort of informed prediction. All I can say is that I'm hopeful we can be an NCAA team if the freshmen, particularly Gesell, can step in and play well.
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CrHawkeye	that's the spirit!*	#14	[url]	[-]
Posts: 24132 Mar 23 12 2:41 AM CrHawkeye in IC
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Chicago Hawk	Impossible to make an informed prediction?	#15	[url]	[-]
Posts: 6910 Mar 23 12 12:54 PM Misery deserves company.	So currently you have no information whatsoever? Or no inclination to inform yourself? Congratulations on knowing nothing and not being curious enough to figure it out. We should just shut down this shithole until October. See you all then.
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H I McDonnough	In defense of tidrow	#16	[url]	[-]
Posts: 808 Mar 23 12 9:21 PM	Tidrow is, in fact, one of the least informed people you could ever hope to meet. His brutal honesty about his lack of knowledge is refreshing. At least he is not ignorant about his ignorance. I, for one, salute him.
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tidrow		#17	[url]	[-]
Posts: 503 Mar 24 12 11:13 AM	Thank you H I.
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tidrow		#18	[url]	[-]
Posts: 503 Mar 24 12 11:16 AM	How about this Chicago: Because we will be relying so much on incoming freshman, there is so much uncertainty that I don't feel as though I have any idea how good we'll be. There's a wide range of possible outcomes to the season that wouldn't surprise me.
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Johann Hawk	Woodbury/Gessell cf Reiner/Horner	#19	[url]	[-]
Posts: 535 Mar 24 12 12:21 PM	Knowing where he is from and watching a couple videos of Woodbury the easiest comparison is to Jared Reiner. Reiner was a highly touted 6'-11" recruit from rural SD early in Alford's tenure. Ended up leading the Big Ten in rebounding as a junior and was equally as good his senior year before injuries (blown out knee, I think) ended his Iowa career. Coming in he was tall, relatively skinny, good passer, good finesse shooter. Career 70% free throw shooter. Looked up his stats for his first two years. Not pretty. Freshman: 35 games, 13 min/g, 3.1 ppg, 2.9 reb/g, 0.6 bl/g. Sophomore: 33 games, 14 min/g, 3.1 ppg, 2.5 reb/g, 0.8 bl/g. http://statsheet.com/mcb/...player/iowa/jared-reiner At his peak (final 1.5 seasons) he was a 10 points and 8 boards a game guy. Good numbers. But most every Iowa fan at the time was disappointed in his career, mostly because he made almost no impact his first two seasons. I think he was a good kid, if I remember he might have been a little arrogant but kept out of trouble. At the time I thought the fans were too hard on him, that their expectations had been too high, that even when he did start achieving they didn't recognize it. Based on this comparison, and the rule of thumb that big men do take longer to develop, I would not expect Woodbury to make a big impact next year. He can probably do better than 3 & 3 - Fran's teams push the pace so I'd expect an extra bucket and board. Plus if he plays more minutes - say 20 - he would probably pick up stats at the same rate. Let's say 20 minutes, 5-6 p/g and 4 reb/g. How about Gessell vs Jeff Horner? I'm not going to bother to look up any Gessell video, but here are Horner's stats: Freshman: 31 games, 35 min/g, 8.2 ppg, 4.5 a/g, 4.4 reb/g, 1.3 st/g. http://statsheet.com/mcb/.../player/iowa/jeff-horner I would be thrilled with this level of production from an incoming point guard. I doubt Gessell could handle 35 minutes a game running Fran's offense though - way too fast paced. Let's say 25 min/g, 7 p/g, 3-4 a/g. I think we'll be lucky to make the tournament. Let's see what happens in the non-conference. If we can start 10-3 or better you can call me a believer, even if a number of the teams are cupcakes. My prediction: 19-12, on the bubble heading into the big ten tournament, still needing two-three wins to get in. So for the foreseeable future man's irrationality - which engineering philosophers have seen fit to ignore - will have to be taken very seriously into account. - Samuel C. Florman, The Existential Pleasures of Engineering Last Edited By: Johann Hawk Mar 24 12 12:25 PM. Edited 1 time.
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DanL	I've decided to wildly speculate (long)	#20	[url]	[-]
Posts: 894 Mar 25 12 11:00 AM	Remove this ad Since Gessell and Woodbury have played alot of basketball, counting AAU games, they'll come into Iowa a little more ready to play than many freshmen from the past. Unfortunately, they play the toughest two positions to learn, pg and center. Where they will shine is individual stats. Where they will cause grief is team continuity...expect a high turnover rate. Also expect Woodbury to struggle with fouls as I've never seen the Big Ten officials give a freshman a break unless he's likely a one year and go pro type on a highly rated team. The good news is, We've players who handled the center and pg spots returning. We know we want them at their natural positions. It's just a matter of moving them as fast as Gessell and Woodbury can become comfortable. The better news is, we've got another freshman point guard, Clemmens, who will be learning right along with Gessell. That's nice because in practice the coaching can be concentrated on their needs...each should learn/experience their roles at a slightly faster pace. Likewise, at center, we've got Olaseni who at the worst provides a good practice opponent...at best with one year in the system might be ready to fill the need short term (or longer..never know.) So, at center and point we're not facing replacing any key player...we're talking about an upgrade. We're talking about improving other positions by moving players. And, we've got options beyond just Gesssell and Woodbury to get it done! Grade for pg: Past season C-, this season B- on Marbles progression alone. Long term, solid B+. Grade for center: Past season D, this season C due to youth. Long term, A. Shooting guard. The loss of Gatens clearly hurts. Imagine that. It wasn't long ago Gatens was the subject of many a complaint regarding his ability to drive to the hole, his low three point percentage. Wow, the guy had to play power forward his first year because there was no one else. If I recall correctly, wasn't he also helping out at pg at one time early in his career? What we're losing, from Gaten's efforts this last season, is obvious. But what I think we're losing as well is a guy that meant alot to the team..even at the loss of his own stats. If we had one more year will him, I'd be predicting NCAA tourney this year as a certainty. But, we don't. Replacing him, and lets toss in small forward here as well, are a group of guys who as a whole contibute mostly many names..otherwise known as depth..but just one with proven (if you can call one years contributions as a freshman "proven" b..a..s..a..b..e.. (hint) results. But, then I am wildly speculating. So I'll say it. I think White is the real deal at small forward...BUT, he is not prototype run and gun small forward. Nor will he provide the kind of shut down defense that at times we need. I'm saying that Gatens provided the best defense agains the wings of anybody we had last season...we're going to miss that. Marble's going to helping out at point while the new guys learn. If Gessell is indeed the answer at point, when he plays he should be at the point. Same with Clemmons. May, Oglesby, McCabe, known commodities and role players..with a slight chance Oglesby can be more. Ingram, he's got a great shot at contributing over the other guys right away. We need players at the wings that can hit the three, defend, run the court. We need two guys to step up at shooting guard and defend...defend..defend. Against most teams, we can switch up and allow White to defend the weakest (penetration) threat at the wings. He could make a stand up shooter cringe with his height. Grade for shooting guard: last season B+, this season (wild speculation) C-. Long term, we could really use a stud recruit.....C. Grade for small forward: last season C, this season B, long term B+ That leaves power forward. The simplest prediction. We improve. Basabe is likely to see more minutes where he should be...(remember Gatens playing pwoer forward..a guy looks alot better playing in the positin he was meant to play) McCabe has solid role player written all over him, and we've got Meyer coming in. Fixing the center helps power forward quicker than center gets fixed. Grade for power forward: Last season C-, this season B. Long term, B+. So, where we were, where we were at, where we are going: Last year. pg C-, sg B+, sf C, pf C, center D Next season: pg B-, sg C-, sf B, pf B, center C Long term: pg B+, sg C, sf B+, pf B+, center A If anyone is still reading...translate as you wish. I look at this and think that while overall we're improved next season, we're missing the "edge" Gatens brought for that one basket when needed. We lack a stud either due to youth, or just not having one. And we especially need to find a shooting guard down the road that could potentially put us with the "big boys" in the Big Ten. Of the four positions I'm giving the highest grades next season and long term, Gessell, White, Basabe (with a nod to McCabe as a very good backup and Meyer with good potential) and Woodbury...we've got the time to bring in that fifth starter. Perhaps we find a juco who can come in and start next season? Or perhaps there is a high school stud out there that could contribute right away. It is the key between being in the top tier of the Big Ten in two years...and challenging for the top of the Big Ten. Next season results should be NIT likely, NCAA slight shot. We'll be playing our best ball at the end of the season and I'd hate to be any opponent in the NIT. Season after, based on our current roster, top four in the Big Ten with a good shot at the Sweet Sixteen. Injuries and unexpected development (improvement) amongst the role players should balance out as long as we don't lose Gessell, White or Woodbury.
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Current expectations for next year?	Mar 20 12 8:53 AM	Chicago Hawk
I see us as 6th-8th	Mar 20 12 9:09 AM	THEOHAWK
Ty Zeller from IU agrees with your assessment of AW	Mar 20 12 11:59 AM	NLHawkeye
haven't seen woodbury play, but.......	Mar 20 12 2:04 PM	Mattfromchicago
I'll again bring up the fact Hlas noted a month or two ago.	Mar 20 12 2:18 PM	Cattlefeeder
I'm not saying Woodbury isn't the real deal - he most certainly is	Mar 21 12 7:38 AM	THEOHAWK
If we finish sixth...	Mar 20 12 2:21 PM	farfelabc
Re: Current expectations for next year?	Mar 20 12 8:02 PM	MNHawkeye
I think Cattlefeeder is dead on...	Mar 20 12 8:13 PM	DanL
On a limb here...	Mar 20 12 9:08 PM	Eyehawk
I think 6th would be a reasonable expectation	Mar 21 12 8:48 AM	coehawk
Some improvement but....	Mar 21 12 9:10 PM	HoustonHawkeye
My guess	Mar 22 12 10:08 AM	H I McDonnough
i know that idle speculation is sort of the point of Internet message boards	Mar 22 12 8:28 PM	tidrow
that's the spirit!*	Mar 23 12 2:41 AM	CrHawkeye
Impossible to make an informed prediction?	Mar 23 12 12:54 PM	Chicago Hawk
In defense of tidrow	Mar 23 12 9:21 PM	H I McDonnough
Re: Current expectations for next year?	Mar 24 12 11:13 AM	tidrow
Re: Current expectations for next year?	Mar 24 12 11:16 AM	tidrow
Woodbury/Gessell cf Reiner/Horner	Mar 24 12 12:21 PM	Johann Hawk
I've decided to wildly speculate (long)	Mar 25 12 11:00 AM	DanL
I normally agree with your speculatios, Dan...	Mar 25 12 9:22 PM	Eyehawk
That justs goes to show...	Mar 25 12 10:12 PM	DanL
Agree with Eye and someone else per: Marble	Mar 27 12 10:43 AM	Chicago Hawk
Re: Current expectations for next year?	Mar 27 12 7:16 PM	Eyehawk
I may be wrong...	Mar 27 12 11:07 PM	DanL

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Current expectations for next year?

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